New here? You're reading Dispatches from the Rebellion — independent reporting on the global fight for freedom.
|
Want to share this? Here's a link.
The Global Fight for Freedom
- This Time, Putin Is in Deep Sh*t
- Reality Check: Tehran Is Losing Hormuz
- The "Scurrying Rat" Who Defied Beijing
Country names are followed by their 2026 freedom scores according to Freedom House. Not a ranking.
In June 2023, the world held its breath as Yevgeny Prigozhin's Wagner column thundered up the M4 highway toward Moscow. Was the Kremlin's brutal mercenary chief about to topple Vladimir Putin himself? In truth, Putin was never in mortal danger—the army held, the elite never flipped, and two months later Prigozhin's plane fell from the sky.
But this time is different.
Shortly after the 2022 invasion, Russia held 26.8% of Ukraine. Ukrainian counteroffensives drove that down to 17.9% by November 2022. Since then, Russia has seized only 1.5% more territory—while suffering over one million casualties.
As the Institute for the Study of War put it, Russia has needed three and a half years to seize an area smaller than Los Angeles County.
Cracks are spreading. In April, fashion influencer posted an 18-minute video to her 13 million Russian Instagram followers. "Vladimir Vladimirovich, the people are afraid of you," she said. "I am not afraid." She torched the Kremlin's botched Dagestan flood response, the Black Sea oil spills, the Telegram ban, and forced adoption of Max—a state surveillance app built by the FSB unit that poisoned Navalny. Ten million views in hours.
Even Putin's enforcers are wobbling. In Chechnya, ailing warlord Ramzan Kadyrov has secured Emirati citizenship for his nephew and shifted family wealth to Dubai. The strongman Putin paid to quell the restive republic is scouting an exit. Moscow's billions in subsidies bought loyalty for 18 years, but Russia's energy revenues dropped 20% in 2025 and the war has bled the treasury dry. A Chechnya Moscow can no longer bribe is a Chechnya rife for revolt.
The economy is buckling. GDP contracted 1.8% in January and February. Interest rates sit at 14.5%. One Russian official told the Washington Post: "A banking crisis is possible. A nonpayments crisis is possible." Russia faces a 2.4 million worker shortage by 2030. Some 250,000 unemployed veterans have returned home—many armed, traumatized, and twice as likely as ordinary Russians to be tried for murder.
This time, Putin is in real trouble, and a plane crash won’t make it go away.
Sources: Institute for the Study of War, The National Interest, Fortune, The Economist, Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, Rand
Yesterday at dawn, Iranian cruise missiles streaked across the Persian Gulf toward two American warships. Hours later, projectiles slammed into the UAE. A South Korean vessel went up in flames. Iranian speedboats swarmed commercial traffic until U.S. Apache helicopters drove them under.
Cue the predictable media narratives. Trump is stuck. Iran still controls Hormuz. Stalemate.
But look closer. The Iranian barrage betrays its desperation. Nearly lost in yesterday's coverage: a Danish-flagged container ship—stranded in the Gulf since the war began—sailed free under American military escort. Project Freedom had begun.
Trump clearly underestimated how long this would take. The bombing campaign didn't produce quick capitulation. Roughly 25% of Pentagon target sites remain standing, including critical pieces of Iran's nuclear program. The Pentagon’s strategic objectives have not been fully met.
But Trump's pivot from bombing to all-out economic warfare has been devastatingly effective.
The United States lost about 30% of its GDP during the entire Great Depression. Iran has lost roughly 40% in two months. The rial just hit an all-time low against the dollar. Inflation tops 70%. More than a million Iranians are out of work. Retired Adm. Mark Montgomery estimates the blockade is costing Tehran $15 billion a month and choking off 90% of its exports.
The strategy also spares American servicemen and sidesteps an expensive bombing campaign that was running out of targets.
The real killer: Iran is running out of storage for the oil it can't ship. Within a month, its production must drop by roughly a third. Once those wells shut in, restarting them inflicts permanent damage.
That's why Tehran is now begging regional mediators for a deal to lift the blockade while postponing the nuclear talks—the same delay strategy it has run for two decades.
Credit Trump for refusing. He is paying a real political price as American drivers—lower-income families especially—are feeling genuine pain at the pump, and Republicans grow increasingly nervous about midterms.
Next week, Trump meets Xi Jinping in Beijing, where every additional day of the blockade strengthens his hand.
The bottom line: Trump has Iran in a vice—and it's possible these attacks are the regime's final throes.
Sources: The Wall Street Journal, Politico, Radio Free Europe, Preston Stewart’s YouTube Channel
For 14 hours, the commander-in-chief of Taiwan's armed forces had no secure way to talk to his own military.
The Airbus carrying President Lai Ching-te toward Eswatini belonged to King Mswati III, was crewed by foreign pilots, and lacked the encrypted link to Taipei's military command. If Beijing chose that window to escalate, Lai would be reduced to a civilian satellite phone over the Indian Ocean. One legislator feared a "command vacuum." Lai boarded anyway.
He was traveling to mark the 40th anniversary of Mswati's coronation. Eswatini is Taiwan's last African ally—and pays for it, banned from tariff-free access to the Chinese market that every other African nation enjoys. Beijing has spent decades flipping countries; only 12 still recognize Taipei. Last month, China leaned on Seychelles, Mauritius, and Madagascar to yank overflight permits the day before Lai's original departure. Germany and the Czech Republic meekly refused emergency transit through Europe, so Mswati sent his royal jet to Taipei.
Lai's entire life is defiance. Born in 1959 to a coal miner who died of carbon monoxide poisoning when Lai was a toddler, he went to Harvard, became a doctor, and then abandoned medicine during the 1996 Taiwan Strait Crisis—when China fired missiles to intimidate Taiwan's first direct presidential election—to enter politics. He served four terms in the legislature, became a premier, then vice president. In 2017, he called himself a "pragmatic worker for Taiwan independence." Beijing has never forgotten.
China brands him an "obstinate separatist." It enacted death-penalty guidelines for "die-hard separatists" weeks after his inauguration. It has sanctioned his VP, defense minister, and cabinet ministers. It launched a record 3,570 PLA aircraft incursions in 2025. Last week its Taiwan Affairs Office called him "a rat scurrying across the street."
When Lai arrived, he told the king "No country has the right to obstruct Taiwan's contributions to the world." This is the courage it will take to keep Taiwan free.
Sources: Reuters, The Wall Street Journal
Refer a Friend:
If you've enjoyed this episode of Dispatches from the Rebellion, please consider referring a friend. Forward this email and ask them to click on the "Subscribe" button below to sign up.
|