Hello Reader,
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Astounding. Inconceivable. Stupefying.
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I've been riveted by footage of Israelis and Palestinians celebrating simultaneously in the streets with equal jubilation—the only word that captures it—and I still can't wrap my head around it. Too excited. Too hopeful. Too flustered—Every theory I held about power, diplomacy, and the Middle East has been thrown into question.
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Let me try to capture what I'm grappling with:
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​On my past criticism of Trump's approach: I once compared Trump to Otto von Bismarck in a piece warning that his balance-of-power politics and concession to spheres of influence was a dangerous reversion—the same realpolitik that dragged Europe into World War I. That view now seems naïve—I underestimated the role of raw military power and credible deterrence in creating the conditions for peace. Trump's approach—interest-based bargaining backed by overwhelming force—has achieved what generations of values-based diplomacy could not.
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​On the vindication of hard power: This deal doesn't exist without Israel's crushing military campaign against Hamas and its supporters. The Hezbollah pagers. The destruction of Iran’s nuclear deterrent. The Biden administration opposed this approach at nearly every turn, demanding ceasefires, making values-based appeals to Hamas, and urging feckless restraint. Trump did the opposite: he empowered Israel. They listened to him because he supported them, because Netanyahu feared crossing his red lines. This established that military victory creates negotiating leverage—a principle the liberal international order has spent decades denying.
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​On values versus interests: The liberal orthodoxy insists that promoting democratic values must supersede power politics. That orthodoxy now looks Pollyannaish. Trump cut deals with Qatar and Saudi Arabia—illiberal regimes I criticized him for courting. Those deals were essential to the outcome. He understood what I didn't: that leaders respond to incentives, not lectures. Carrots and sticks. The language of power.
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​On the impossible coalition: Trump rallied the entire Middle East behind the agreement. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt, even Qatar—former enemies now publicly praising the deal. How did he do It? With hard-nosed pragmatism. By making it in their interest to participate, by demonstrating that America under his leadership would reward cooperation and punish obstruction, regardless of past alignments.
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​On human rights organizations: They look foolish now. Groups that spent two years demanding Israel cease its military operations, that accused Israel of genocide, that gave moral cover to Hamas—they achieved nothing. Trump withstood their pressure for a vision greater than anything their approach could have achieved. He understood that ending the war required first winning it.
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​On Trump's ego: When Trump Tower went up in Chicago, I resented those giant letters gleaming above my favorite city. But the building itself was beautiful—shining above the river, however besotted by vanity. And now? Who cares about his ego? Who cares if he's angling for a Nobel? Does the starving Gazan child care that Trump's vanity is satisfied? With hope for future generations abounding, such considerations seem absurdly minor.
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​On what only America can do: More than anything, this reminds me of America's unique capacity to make the impossible possible. America cannot claim sole credit, but no other nation could have orchestrated this. No other leader could have brought these parties together. It's thrilling. It's hopeful. It lifts a tremendous weight off the world—one I didn’t even realize I was carrying.
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​On Trump’s broader foreign policy: This doesn't exonerate Trum’s approach wholesale. His refusal to apply similar pressure to Putin remains inexplicable. His methods may only succeed in the Middle East, where power commands respect, leaders can be bought, and empty threats are dismissed as weakness. But it changes the calculus. It has to. An achievement this significant forces us to recalibrate.
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​On the carnage: The death toll is staggering—over 60,000 Palestinians killed, 1,200 Israelis murdered on October 7th, including women raped and hostages tortured. Innocent children in Gaza buried under rubble. This horror cannot be forgotten or minimized. But if this brutality yields a future where children grow up without rockets and bombs, where hatred gives way to coexistence, then perhaps this chaos can give life to future generations.
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​On the fragility: I know the risks. Hamas prisoners being released could kill again—it happened before with Yahya Sinwar, released in a previous deal only to orchestrate October 7th. Hamas could renege, as they did when Arafat walked away from Clinton's generous terms at Camp David. Peace built on Israeli devastation may prove fleeting.
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But right now, I'm allowing myself to feel something I haven't felt about the Middle East in decades: hope.
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Peggy Noonan of the Wall Street Journal wrote: "Sometimes pessimism reaches a point of moral error." I committed that error. I spent years certain that Trump's foreign policy would lead to disaster. Instead, I'm watching scenes of jubilation and alliances I never thought possible—and hope where there was only hatred.
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I thought I understood how the world worked. The Israel-Hamas peace deal has shattered those assumptions. The world is more malleable than I believed. Power matters more than I wanted to admit. Wielded decisively, it can achieve what my starry-eyed idealism never could.
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Jubilation in the Middle East. I’m thrilled to have been so wrong.

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