|
Hello Reader,
"Speak softly and carry a big stick; you will go far."
Teddy Roosevelt borrowed this West African proverb in 1900, transforming it into American policy. But few grasp what he meant. Restraint in rhetoric preserved flexibility. Credibility came from consistency. Power worked best when it didn't need to be used. Roosevelt wrote: "If a man continually blusters, he is not apt to be taken seriously."
Roosevelt wasn’t calling for silence. He was calling for discipline. Trump never learned the lesson.
The Global Fight for Freedom
- Big Stick, Bigger Mouth.
- "An Unprecedented Act of Strategic Self-Harm"
- Syrian Thunderbolt: One Becomes Many
- Where Dictators Refuse to Die
- Bloggers Expose Russian Military's Charade
Country names are followed by their 2025 freedom scores according to Freedom House. Note: This global flagship edition of Dispatches will remain free; Friday's weekly deep-dive will move to a paid tier in late February. Details coming soon.
On January 2nd, Trump blustered: "If Iran [shoots] and violently kills peaceful protesters...the United States will come to their rescue. We are locked and loaded." Siavash Shirzad, a 38-year-old father, believed him. His family begged him not to go. He answered: "Trump said he supports us." On January 8th, authorities massacred many thousands, Shirzad among them. He left a 12-year-old son behind.
Over the weekend, scores of similar accounts of hope, horror, and the return of despair emerged from Iran.
On January 13th, Trump urged protesters: "KEEP PROTESTING—TAKE OVER YOUR INSTITUTIONS!!! HELP IS ON ITS WAY." By then, over 16,000 lay dead*, with over 300,000 injured. By then, hope had yielded to despair in Tehran.
Three days later, Trump reversed himself: "I greatly respect that all scheduled hangings…have been cancelled by the leadership of Iran. Thank you!" They're buying time. Iran's Prosecutor General declared all protesters "enemies of God"—requiring no proof and carrying a death sentence.
Trump has proven he can wield his big stick—i.e. the American military—with precision. He never learned to speak softly.
On Saturday, Trump told Politico: "It's time to look for new leadership in Iran." The USS Abraham Lincoln speeds toward the Gulf. Trump may yet act, but the once-in-two-generation opportunity to topple one of the most ruthless regimes on earth may have passed.
His hesitation may have been prudent. His bravado was deadly.
*The Sunday Times reports over 16,000 dead. We verified this figure’s plausibility using anecdotal evidence from inside Iran. Most outlets cite lower figures without independent corroboration, but even the regime admits over 5,000 killed.
"Make America Go Away."
The red caps mocked Trump's MAGA slogan as thousands flooded Copenhagen's streets Saturday, waving Greenland's flag outside City Hall. In Nuuk—Greenland's capital of barely 20,000 souls—5,000 protesters jammed roads, making it the largest demonstration in Greenland's history. Signs declared "Greenland is not for sale" and "Yankee, Go Home."
The rebellion isn't just in Copenhagen. Senator Thom Tillis warned that any military action would trigger a veto-proof war powers resolution. Mitch McConnell condemned Trump’s position as "an unprecedented act of strategic self-harm."
The pushback marks one of the most profound breaches between GOP lawmakers and Trump in his second term.
Yet Greenland’s strategic significance is real. Russia is launching experimental nuclear cruise missiles from Arctic archipelagos—weapons theoretically capable of hitting any Western target. China and Russia probe Alaskan airspace with nuclear-capable bombers. The Arctic now yields a tenth of the world's oil and a quarter of its natural gas, with an estimated 90 billion barrels of untapped reserves. As sea ice retreats, China operates its first regular container service through the Northeast Passage, cutting Europe-Asia shipping time in half.
But here's what Trump’s “undisciplined” bluster misses: America already has everything it needs. Denmark offered expanded military presence, NATO deployments, surveillance cooperation, mineral access agreements—everything short of formal ownership. Current arrangements allow the U.S. to counter Russian submarine activity in the Barents Sea and monitor Chinese Arctic expansion.
Instead, Trump demands total ownership. On Saturday, he announced 10% levies on Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the UK, the Netherlands, and Finland—rising to 25% by June unless Greenland is purchased.
GOP Rep. Don Bacon called Trump’s Greenland obsession "the dumbest thing I've ever heard.” At least one Donald is talking sense.
One Islam. One identity. One Allah.
For a century, Salafism pounded this drumbeat across the Middle East—strip Islam of history, erase local custom, abolish pre-Islamic identity. Ancient cultures—Persian, Syrian, Egyptian, Kurdish—were corruptions to be purged. Borders and ethnicity were jahiliyyah—ignorance.
The caliphate demanded uniformity.
Last week, Syrian President Ahmed Al-Sharaa—who beat this "one" drum while leading al-Qaeda's Syrian affiliate—ordered an attack on Kurdish forces in Deir Hafir after local Kurdish militias rejected orders to formally integrate with the Syrian army or dissolve.
One army. One nation. One Syria.
But on Friday, al-Sharaa shattered the pattern. His decree formally recognized Kurdish as a "national language," restored Kurdish citizenship, declared their spring festival a national holiday, and banned ethnic discrimination. For the first time since Syria's 1946 independence, Kurdish identity became legitimate.
This wasn't just a political compromise. This was an ideological thunderbolt.
Al-Sharaa spent years breaking jihadi taboos. When ISIS declared its caliphate in 2013, al-Qaeda dispatched its most experienced operatives to Syria. Al-Sharaa's Hayat Tahrir al-Sham turned against both, delivering crippling defeats. By 2017, HTS broke from al-Qaeda entirely, then escorted Turkish troops—representatives of the "apostate" Muslim Brotherhood—into Idlib. The group dismantled al-Qaeda's infrastructure, arresting over 170 commanders and destroying bases.
Yet Friday's Kurdish recognition went further. Al-Qaeda's ideology treated ethnicity as heresy. Al-Sharaa enshrined it in presidential decree—though Kurdish leaders demand constitutional protections before full integration.
The timing matters. Kurdish fighters guard 9,000 ISIS prisoners across northeastern Syria. Last week's Aleppo clashes killed 23 before Kurdish forces withdrew from Deir Hafer. U.S. officials feared broader Turkish-backed operations against America's Kurdish allies, who've fought ISIS alongside U.S. forces for a decade. The Kurds have signaled willingness to lay down their arms.
Al-Sharaa chose integration over annihilation.
It’s still unknown whether al-Shaara is aiming for true pluralism, or forging a compromise to consolidate power. But Salafism's rigidity just cracked. It recognized the dignity of those who refused to obey its values. One just became many. Whether this pluralist vision survives Syria's reconstruction remains uncertain, but Friday marked jihad's rarest phenomenon: genuine ideological evolution.
The implications for the Middle East are profound.
Across Africa, the continent convulses. JNIM—al-Qaeda's Sahel affiliate—has besieged Mali's capital Bamako since September, starving four million while fuel vanishes and schools shutter. In Nigeria, Boko Haram and ISWAP slaughtered 70 Christians over Christmas. Seven million require humanitarian aid. Across the Sahel, anti-colonial juntas expelled French forces from Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger since 2020, embracing Russian mercenaries instead. In South Africa, the party of Mandela succumbs to the temptations of decades of unchecked rule.
But Africa's crisis isn't just jihadist terror or collapsing infrastructure. It's the men who never left—dictators who transformed liberation into lifetime appointment, revolution into dynasty.
Uganda's latest charade proves it. On January 15th, President Yoweri Museveni secured his seventh term at 81 through internet blackouts and brutality. Security forces bludgeoned opposition rallies. Bobi Wine—the pop star challenging 40 of tyranny—campaigns in bulletproof vests while supporters vanish into torture chambers. When Wine dared call politics "war," Museveni sneered: "Every soldier has 120 bullets."
Uganda is not alone. In nearby Cameroon, Paul Biya—the world's oldest dictator—just won his eight term. This matters to Americans because Beijing and Moscow race to capture Africa's uranium, cobalt, and gold—propping up autocrats to secure extraction rights. China's Belt and Road spans 52 African nations. Wagner mercenaries operate in Mali, Central African Republic, and Sudan. Both powers prefer aging strongmen to messy democracy. Trump's emerging Africa policy suggests Washington may follow suit—prioritizing deals over democracy, resources over rights.
Museveni seized power in 1986 promising transformation, but his guerrilla movement became a kleptocracy. His son fantasizes about beheading opponents. Institutions rotted into rubber stamps. Africa's tragedy isn't just new juntas rising—it's old rulers who turned revolution permanent, leaving foreign powers to prop up men who long outlived their purpose, sustained only by Russian guns and Chinese cash.
The continent that will be home to a quarter of the world's population by 2050 watches its institutions crumble under men who refuse to die.
Russia's own war bloggers are calling bullshit.
Near Kupyansk, Russian milbloggers—pro-Kremlin military commentators with massive online followings—erupted after Defense Minister Andrei Belousov claimed Russian control of the strategic city.
One blogger's response was blunt: statements about Russian control are "not only inaccurate" but "do not even come close to reflecting the actual situation on the ground." Russian forces haven't controlled Kupyansk "for a single day."
The complaints expose a wider pattern. The bloggers accused Russia’s Western Grouping of Forces of "groundlessly" claiming advances while Ukrainian troops hold positions—leading to inadequate Russian countermeasures, losses "in the hundreds," coordination failures, and assaults on phantom objectives. One blogger revealed that Russian forces still haven't fully captured Mayske despite Moscow claiming victory last September—Russian commanders have been "submitting reports falsifying advances."
Chief of General Staff Valery Gerasimov claimed Russian forces seized over 300 square kilometers in early January. The Institute for the Study of War verified Russian presence increased in only 74 square kilometers—one-quarter of Gerasimov's claim. He boasted about capturing two small border villages as evidence of "extensive successes."
The Kremlin's cognitive warfare aims to convince Ukraine and the West that Russian victory is inevitable, pressuring capitulation out of fear. But when your own propagandists won't swallow the lies, the narrative collapses.
Russian milbloggers complained that sending "beautiful reports" to higher-ups—while Ukrainian forces counterattack positions Moscow claims to control—is getting Russian soldiers slaughtered for propaganda.
Truth died long ago in Putin's Russia. Now it's killing Russians too. If only Trump were reading the blogs.
|