What's Dumber Than a Trade War?

"The dumbest trade war in history." That's how the Wall Street Journal bluntly described Donald Trump's recently imposed tariffs. But the trade war isn’t even Trump’s stupidest idea—it’s his inability to grasp what made America the most prosperous country in the history of the world in the first place—political freedom.

This newsletter, Dispatches from the Rebellion, champions this vital truth: political freedom is the essential foundation upon which economic prosperity is built.

The Philosophy of Freedom

"Government is instituted to protect property of every sort," wrote James Madison in 1792, adding that "Where an excess of power prevails, property of no sort is duly respected. No man is safe in his opinions, his person, his faculties, or his possessions." This represents Madison's understanding that political freedom creates the essential conditions for economic flourishing, and that centralized power threatens both.

When societies honor free speech, religious liberty, assembly rights, independent institutions, and property rights, they create environments where innovation, investment, and industry naturally flourish. Humans thrive when protected yet unhindered by excessive government intervention.

Global Patterns of Freedom and Prosperity

History offers compelling evidence for this connection, beginning with Rome. The Roman Republic functioned effectively for over three centuries, but as political power concentrated in the hands of emperors, economic decline followed.

When Augustus Caesar weakened the senate and established himself as Rome's first emperor, he altered the economic incentives that had fueled Rome's prosperity. The once-vibrant middle classes collapsed as imperial demands for resources grew. Economic problems, government corruption, and crime followed. Caesar’s “city of marble” eventually crumbled.

During the European Middle Ages, Italian city-states like Venice and Florence, with their republican governments, strong political institutions, and protection of commercial rights, became the wealthiest regions in Europe. Similarly, the Dutch Republic's rise to commercial dominance in the 17th century coincided with greater religious tolerance and political freedoms than its European rivals.

The industrial revolution took strongest root in Britain, where the Glorious Revolution of 1688 had established stronger protections for property rights and limits on royal power, transforming Britain into the world's dominant power.

China's Economic Experiment

For a contemporary example, look to China’s natural experiment in political and economic freedom over several decades.

China's extraordinary growth began with Deng Xiaoping's market reforms in the late 1970s, which introduced elements of economic liberty while maintaining the Communist Party's political control. The results were spectacular—over 800 million people lifted from poverty.

Yet China's one-party system, with its lack of checks on government power, enabled Xi Jinping to consolidate authority. More state control followed, effectively ending China’s economic miracle. The economy now suffers persistent deflation as unemployment, bankruptcies, and capital outflows soar.

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The Global Poverty Revolution

The relationship between political freedom and economic prosperity explains the most significant humanitarian achievement in human history: the dramatic reduction in global poverty.

For millennia, extreme poverty was humanity's default condition. Historical estimates indicate that over 80% of the global population lived in extreme poverty in 1800. Just 225 years later, that figure has plummeted to 8.5%—an unprecedented transformation in human welfare.

The Enlightenment revolution—championed by Locke's natural rights, Montesquieu's separation of powers, and Smith's invisible hand—transformed humanity's prospects by establishing governance systems that protected individual liberty and limited arbitrary power. When societies embraced these luminaries' principles, they unleashed unprecedented human creativity and industry.

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Trump's Authoritarian Impulses

Trump’s consistent admiration for dictators reveals a profound misunderstanding of these global developments. Equally troubling are his actions undermining American democratic institutions: suing the press, limiting media access, and challenging judicial independence. His unilateral imposition of tariffs without congressional involvement demonstrates his preference for control over democratic processes.

As Madison understood, the protection of 'the rights of property, and the property in rights' is essential to prosperity. While Trump's tariffs are economically senseless, it's his authoritarian impulses and indifference to constitutional freedoms that pose the greatest threat to American prosperity.

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